I have been using predictionbook.com to make and track predictions over the last few weeks. I’m enjoying it! Allegedly, the long-term benefits should be not only better predictions but also better-calibrated predictions. I haven’t seen those benefits yet, but I believe they’re there. For now, I have a daily to-do for creating at least one prediction.

Sometimes I get stuck on how to do this, a few ways to get unstuck:

  • Look at the front page of a news site (including wikipedia). Take a news story, and try to make a prediction about how it will unfold.
  • Think about people in my life and make predictions about their major life events (this feels a bit icky).
  • Think about my own life, what I’m expecting/hoping/dreading will happen.
  • For all of these, try a few time frames: this week, this month, 6 months, 5 years. Longer than that is maybe a bit dicey, especially for early on as you’re improving.